Coin Market Resilient Despite Hacking Incident, Is This a Real Rebound? CoinFeed Warns of Dependence on U.S. Stock Market

According to CoinFeed, the cryptocurrency market has successfully rebounded despite the shock from the Coldcard hacking incident. However, it is difficult to conclude that this is a trend reversal, as the rise is attributed to external liquidity linked to the surge in the U.S. stock market rather than internal demand. CoinFeed's research highlighted that Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins withstood the hacking incident but moved in high correlation with the S&P 500.

Rebound Amid Hacking Incident, But Market Strength Still Unverified

The market faced renewed pressure as the hacking of Coldcard hardware wallets, which had been anticipated a day earlier, actually expanded. This attack exploited firmware vulnerabilities, resulting in the theft of over $100 million in Bitcoin from approximately 4,500 addresses. This incident is interpreted as a burden on the overall trust in hardware wallets and investor sentiment, going beyond a simple security breach.

Nevertheless, major assets did not significantly expand their losses. Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $64,214, Ethereum (ETH) at $1,874, Ripple (XRP) at $1.0750, and Solana (SOL) at $74.04, each showing limited upward movement. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.28 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $53.4 billion, and Bitcoin dominance was recorded at 56.6%. However, the Fear & Greed Index remained at 25, indicating an 'extreme fear' zone.

This rebound is interpreted as benefiting from improvements in external conditions rather than the market's own buying strength. Following U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Vessen's remarks, expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz spread, leading to a sharp drop in international oil prices and easing inflation expectations that lifted risk assets overall. The Nasdaq rose by 3.2%, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.8%, with the cryptocurrency market also correlating with these movements. CoinFeed's analysis pointed out that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 reached 89%, making it difficult to view this day's rise as an independent bullish signal.

Institutional Demand as a Support, Bitcoin Still Faces Resistance

Despite the hacking incident, institutional funds defended the market's lower bounds to some extent. A net inflow of $170 million occurred in Bitcoin spot ETFs on August 3, with trading volume increasing by 43% on August 4. This suggests that large investors may have perceived the security issues as a short-term shock and engaged in bargain hunting.

However, price movements remain cautious. Bitcoin held above the 50-day moving average of $63,311 but failed to break through the 100-day moving average of $64,891. Technically, the prevailing interpretation is that it is a rebound within a downward trend. In the domestic Upbit market, Bitcoin maintained the 90 million won level, but the 24-hour trading volume decreased by 7.50%, indicating selective fund movement focused on certain assets rather than widespread buying.

Ethereum Shows Improvement Expectations, XRP and Solana at a Critical Juncture

Ethereum has relatively highlighted expectations for structural improvement compared to Bitcoin. The Ethereum spot ETF ended an eight-week streak of net outflows, returning to a net inflow of $365 million in July. BlackRock's Ethereum ETF, ETHA, announced a 1-for-3 reverse split on October 6, aiming to reduce trading spreads from 7 basis points to 2 basis points. While there is no change in total asset value, the increased convenience for institutional trading is viewed positively from a supply-demand perspective.

Additionally, Ethereum researchers proposed burning a portion of validator rewards and limiting the staking ratio to around 50%, stimulating expectations for reduced supply. ETH has defended the $1,850 support level for two consecutive weeks, and the market is testing the possibility of a re-break above $2,000.

Ripple (XRP) stands at a clear inflection point around $1.06. The current price is $1.0750, just above the key support level. If this range holds, the possibility of a rebound to $1.64 in August is mentioned, but if it breaks down, projections suggest a drop to $0.62 could occur. On-chain data shows that the proportion of whale wallets has increased to 11.98%, and the number of holders of XRP ledger-based real-world asset tokenization (RWA) has risen by 25% in a month. However, the fact that institutional inflows have not translated into price increases remains a burden. The cumulative inflow into XRP spot ETFs has reached $1.51 billion, but net assets stand at only $988.78 million.

Solana (SOL) is seen as having a clear short-term catalyst with the mainnet functionality activation scheduled for August 17. The spot ETF also recorded a net inflow before July, surpassing a cumulative total of $1.12 billion. Technically, maintaining support at $72.27 and breaking through $76.27 are key areas that will determine the short-term direction.

Regulation and Interest Rates Become Next Variables for the Cryptocurrency Market

The policy environment is also a factor that increases market volatility. In the U.S. Senate, discussions on the Clarity Act, which aims to clearly classify digital assets as securities or commodities, are gaining momentum. Senator Cynthia Lummis has urged the Democratic Party to cease blocking votes, and reports indicate that Cathie Wood has significantly increased her purchases of related cryptocurrency stocks. This bill is particularly evaluated as a variable that could directly impact Ripple (XRP) investor sentiment.

Domestically, a tax plan imposing a 22% tax on virtual asset income exceeding 2.5 million won is effectively in the final stages of confirmation starting next year. Additionally, financial authorities reported that 59% of high-value virtual asset holders with over 1 billion won are aged 50 and above. This indicates that the structure of the domestic market cannot be explained solely by young speculative demand.

From a macro perspective, the dollar and interest rates remain burdensome. The Dollar Index (DXY) continues to battle around the 100 mark, and the market reflects about a 55% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September. The July ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded a high of 55.6, the highest since May 2022, reinforcing hawkish interpretations. Rising interest rates can constrain liquidity across risk assets, potentially creating headwinds for cryptocurrencies as well.

Rebound Confirmed, But It's Too Early to Judge a 'Real Bull Market'

This rebound is significant in that it did not immediately lead to a collapse due to adverse factors. However, since the shock from the hacking incident was supported not by the market's inherent supply-demand but rather by the strength of the U.S. stock market and the inflow of institutional ETF funds, it still carries a strong 'technical rebound' character. Whether Bitcoin (BTC) can break through resistance, whether Ethereum (ETH) can sustain improvements in supply-demand, and whether Ripple (XRP) and Solana (SOL) can pass their respective inflection points will determine future direction.

CoinFeed's report emphasized that in phases where the fear index is extremely low, it is necessary to refine response strategies centered around support levels and event schedules rather than chasing aggressively. While the cryptocurrency market has survived in the current phase intertwined with hacking, ETF fund flows, interest rate variables, and regulatory issues, it is still not a stage where one can be completely at ease.

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