Bitcoin: A Curve in Retrospect, A Torment in Real Time

Chapter 11: Bitcoin: A Curve in Retrospect, A Torment in Real Time

Problems to Address in This Chapter

In the previous chapters, we have clarified the opportunities presented by Bitcoin.

It is not a stock.

Not a company.

Not a bond.

Not real estate.

Not an ordinary payment app.

It is more like a digital scarce asset competing for global currency premiums.

But starting from this chapter, we will enter the truly harsh part of the book:

Even if Bitcoin is an opportunity, ordinary people may not necessarily reap the rewards.

Because the historical curve of Bitcoin only becomes clear in retrospect.

In real time, it is not a smooth upward line of wealth, but a path constantly tested by crashes, regulations, collapses, noise, temptations, and cash flow pressures.

After 2024, this will become even more apparent.

The spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved.

Bitcoin has broken through $100,000 for the first time.

BlackRock's IBIT has reached hundreds of billions in scale.

Bitcoin surged to over $125,000 in 2025.

Then, it dropped to around $60,000 in early 2026. (Reuters)

This is the most authentic side of Bitcoin:

It will constantly prove that it is not air, while also making holders doubt whether they are wrong.

1. 2024: Bitcoin Enters Wall Street, But Does Not Become Gentle

If we only look at the headlines, 2024 seems like Bitcoin's coming-of-age ceremony.

On January 10, 2024, the U.S. SEC approved the listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETPs, with issuers including BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, and others; later timelines from Reuters recorded that in February 2024, the top 10 ETFs saw net inflows of $4 billion in their first month, and by November 2024, the net inflow for the year had reached $25.8 billion. (Reuters)

This is certainly a significant event.

It means Bitcoin is no longer just an asset in crypto exchanges, cold wallets, geek forums, and on-chain addresses. It has been translated into a product that traditional finance can purchase, custody, trade, disclose, and include in regulatory frameworks.

However, the approval of the ETF does not mean Bitcoin has become an index fund.

On April 19, 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving. Reuters reported that after the halving, the price stabilized at around $63,747; however, Bitcoin had reached a historical high of $73,803.25 in March 2024, and the halving did not immediately lead to a new high, but rather fluctuated around $63,800. (Reuters)

You see, this is the experience in real time.

In the same year, Bitcoin first rose due to ETF expectations and capital inflows, reaching a new high of $73,803.25; then, when the halving, an event many viewed as a significant positive, occurred, the price did not soar but fluctuated around $63,000. (Reuters)

For ordinary holders, this is tormenting.

Because the market does not reward you according to textbook rhythms.

The approval of the ETF does not mean an immediate surge.

The occurrence of the halving does not mean an immediate takeoff.

Positive news may even lead to a decline.

The long-term logic remains unchanged, but short-term prices will make you doubt.

This is the first lesson of Bitcoin:

Institutionalization does not equal gentleness.

2. December 2024: First Breakthrough of $100,000, Retrospectively a Milestone, In Real Time a Frenzy

On December 5, 2024, Bitcoin broke through $100,000 for the first time. Reuters reported that Bitcoin surged to $100,000 that day, which many skeptics viewed as the "coming-of-age ceremony" for digital assets; the context at the time included market bets on a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto in the U.S. following Trump's victory, with Bitcoin having risen over 100% in 2024 and increasing by over 50% in the four weeks following Trump's win. (Reuters)

This is undoubtedly a historic moment.

But you need to put yourself back in that scene.

If you were a holder in December 2024, you were not facing a calm curve, but a boiling mass of emotions.

Social media was in a frenzy.

News outlets were reporting.

Skeptics began to fall silent.

Early holders were being deified.

Those who hadn't bought began to feel anxious.

Recent buyers started regretting why they didn't buy more.

Those who had sold began to suffer.

Many started to believe that $100,000 was just the starting point.

At such times, the real difficulty is not in believing in Bitcoin.

The real difficulty is not being swept away by emotions.

You might think:

Since it has already broken through $100,000, should I increase my position?

If I bought less, should I make up for it?

If it is going to reach $200,000 in the future, is it still not too late to buy now?

If I miss this opportunity, will I never catch up?

The most brutal aspect of a bull market is not losing money.

It is making you feel:

Not being aggressive is a mistake.

This is another side of the torment in real time.

A bear market torments you with fear.

A bull market torments you with regret and greed.

3. 2025: New Historical Highs Continue to Appear, But It Is Still Not a Straight Line

In 2025, Bitcoin's price continued to reach new highs.

Reuters reported in July 2025 that Bitcoin briefly touched a new high of $111,988.90, driven by traditional financial institutions embracing cryptocurrencies, sustained institutional demand, and increased risk appetite. (Reuters)

By October 2025, Bitcoin set another record. Reuters reported that on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin surged to a maximum of $125,835.92, driven by institutional investors, more favorable policies from the Trump administration, and deeper connections between Bitcoin and the global financial system. (Reuters)

This set of facts is very important.

Because it indicates:

After the ETF era, Bitcoin has indeed entered a more mainstream financial narrative.

Institutional demand, policy environment, and connections to traditional finance are beginning to become part of the price narrative.

This is not the small circle game of 2013, nor the market primarily driven by retail enthusiasm in 2017.

But you cannot only see this side.

Because also in 2025, Bitcoin's volatility did not disappear.

When it moved from $73,000 to $100,000, and then to $125,000, it certainly looks like a glorious curve in retrospect.

But it was not like that in real time.

At each stage in real time, new questions arise:

After breaking through $100,000, can I still buy?

After reaching $125,000, is it a bubble?

With institutions coming in, has the good news already been priced in?

With a friendly policy, has it already been fully priced by the market?

If it has risen so much, am I too late?

If I don’t buy, what if it goes higher in the future?

If I buy, what if it retraces 50%?

The most terrifying aspect of Bitcoin is not just the crashes.

Its rise can also torment people.

The rise creates fear of missing out, or FOMO.

The rise creates position anxiety.

The rise induces leverage.

The rise makes people feel their core positions are too small.

The rise makes people forget risks.

The rise turns long-term monetization opportunities into a short-term race for wealth.

This is why this book does not consider "it has risen" as the final answer.

Rising only indicates that the asset has completed a price path.

It does not indicate how you will act.

4. February 2026: From $125,835 to $60,017, the Curve Suddenly Becomes a Cliff

If this chapter only ended in October 2025, it would read like a victory narrative.

But Bitcoin has never been that merciful.

In February 2026, the market gave all holders a new stress test.

On February 5, 2026, it was reported that Bitcoin fell to $63,295.74, the lowest since October 2024; on that day, Bitcoin's drop reached 12.6%, and about $1 billion in Bitcoin leveraged positions were liquidated within the past 24 hours, with the global crypto market evaporating about $2 trillion since the peak in October. (Reuters)

The next day, Bitcoin fell again to $60,017.60, hitting a 16-month low, before rebounding to $70,231. (Reuters)

Connecting these numbers:

In October 2025, Bitcoin peaked at $125,835.92.

In February 2026, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $60,017.60.

This means that from peak to trough, Bitcoin roughly halved in a few months. (Reuters)

This is not a curve of "just hold on."

This is a true psychological trial.

If you bought in above $100,000, what would you think?

If you added to your position near $125,000, what would you think?

If you believed the ETF era would change everything but saw the price drop to $60,000, what would you think?

If you used leverage, you might not even have the chance to think because your position has already been liquidated.

If you bought with your living expenses, real-life expenses might force you to sell.

If you built your position due to FOMO, the retracement would turn FOMO into regret.

If you only bought because others were making money, this kind of drop is enough to keep you out for good.

This is the core of this chapter:

Bitcoin not only makes skeptics uncomfortable.

It also makes believers uncomfortable.

5. Current Facts: IBIT is Already Large, But This Does Not Affect Bitcoin's Retracement

Some may say:

Now it’s different.

This time there’s BlackRock, there’s the ETF, there’s traditional financial infrastructure.

This statement is half true.

By mid-May 2026, IBIT has already become a $66.3 billion scale spot Bitcoin ETF, with a 30-day average trading volume close to 38 million shares. (BlackRock)

This indicates that the financialization of Bitcoin has become very real.

However, the same page also shows that as of April 30, 2026, the 1-year total return of IBIT is -18.47%, the 6-month total return is -40.62%, and the year-to-date total return is -22.37%. (BlackRock)

This set of data is very valuable because it breaks a delusion:

ETFs make it easier to buy Bitcoin, but they do not make it easier to hold Bitcoin.

IBIT can have a scale of $66.3 billion.

It can be traded on NASDAQ.

It can be managed by BlackRock.

It can have custody and trading infrastructure like Coinbase Prime.

It can be packaged in traditional finance.

But it still reflects the price volatility of Bitcoin.

Ordinary people can buy in through ETFs, which solves some custody and operational issues.

But it does not solve psychological issues.

It does not solve position issues.

It does not solve cash flow issues.

It does not solve the problem of drawdowns after buying at highs.

It does not solve the problem of panic selling in bear markets.

ETFs are an entry point, not a talisman.

This is not a contradiction.

This is precisely the essence of Bitcoin at its current stage:

It is being monetized, but it is not yet mature.

It has become mainstream, but it is still highly volatile.

It has entered Wall Street, but it will still punish the undisciplined in a dramatic way typical of the crypto world.

Therefore, we cannot say:

Bitcoin has been accepted by institutions, so it is safe now.

Nor can we say:

Bitcoin will be volatile, so it has no opportunity.

The truly accurate statement is:

The opportunities and pains of Bitcoin are two sides of the same coin.

Because it is still being monetized, there is asymmetric space; also because it is still being monetized, the price will be repeatedly and dramatically reassessed.

6. Why does the latest data better illustrate "post-event curves and in-process torment"?

Because the 2024-2026 cycle is very representative.

It is not the early small circle stage.

In this cycle, Bitcoin already has:

Spot ETFs;

Large institutional products like BlackRock and Fidelity;

CME benchmark indices;

Hundreds of billions of dollars in ETF scale;

U.S. regulatory documents and stock exchange access;

Prices breaking through $100,000;

Prices continuing to surge above $125,000. (Reuters)

If under such circumstances, Bitcoin can still retract more than 50% from its historical high, it indicates one thing:

Even if Bitcoin becomes more mainstream in the future, it may not turn into a comfortable path.

This is crucial for you.

Because many ordinary people think that once Bitcoin matures a bit more, gains more regulatory recognition, has more institutional participation, and has more ETF products, it will be easier to hold.

Reality may not be like this.

More maturity means easier access.

More institutionalization means larger funds.

More financialization means deeper liquidity.

But it may also mean:

More macro funds entering and exiting;

More derivatives;

More leverage;

More linkage with tech stocks, interest rates, the dollar, and risk appetite;

More short-term funds treating it as a trading asset.

Therefore, Bitcoin's path will not automatically flatten because of ETFs.

The behavior system of ordinary people becomes even more important.

7. What ordinary people really need to face is not "can I buy it," but "can I go through these stages without making impulsive moves".

If you buy Bitcoin at the beginning of 2024, what will you experience?

You will see the ETF pass.

You will see a new high in March 2024.

You will see that after the halving in April 2024, there is no immediate surge.

You will see the first breakthrough of $100,000 in December 2024.

You will see it surge to $125,000 in October 2025.

You will also see it drop to around $60,000 in February 2026.

You will see the price still hovering around $80,000 in May 2026. (Reuters)

Along the way, every node will tempt you to take action.

When the ETF passes, you want to increase your position.

During the halving, you wait for a surge.

At $100,000, you fear missing out.

At $125,000, you think you are too conservative.

When it drops to $60,000, you think you are too foolish.

When it rebounds to $80,000, you are unsure whether to add more.

This is the in-process experience.

It is not a single buying point.

It is not a single selling point.

It is not a statement of "long-term optimism".

Rather, it is the impulse to change plans countless times.

Therefore, the true ability to hold Bitcoin is not whether you can shout out a long-term target price.

But rather:

When the market tempts you with rises, humiliates you with falls, comforts you with ETFs, intimidates you with liquidations, and stimulates you with others making profits, can you still act according to your own rules?

This is what this book aims to train.

8. The latest history tells us: Holding Bitcoin is not easier, but harder.

The new history of 2024-2026 proves:

Bitcoin can enter ETFs.

It can break through $100,000.

It can attract institutions.

It can become part of the global financial system.

But it can still allow ordinary people to experience a halving-style drawdown in a few months.

It can still create liquidations.

It can still make bulls doubt.

It can still cause pain for those who bought at highs.

It can still force those without cash flow and position rules to exit early. (Reuters)

Therefore, Bitcoin does not no longer need a survival system just because it is more mainstream.

On the contrary:

The more mainstream it becomes, the easier it is for ordinary people to underestimate its cruelty.

They will think:

With BlackRock coming in, it should be stable.

With ETFs available, it should be safe.

Having broken through $100,000, it should not drop too much.

With institutions buying in, I should not be afraid.

Then the market will tell you:

It is not like that.

ETFs do not solve your position.

Institutions do not solve your emotions.

BlackRock does not solve your cash flow.

Historical highs do not solve your risk control.

Monetization logic does not solve your short-term liquidation.

This is why the latter part of this book must discuss:

Living defenses;

Core positions;

Buying rules;

Holding rules;

Selling rules;

Safety systems;

Crisis action cards.

Not because these things seem stable.

But because without these things, you may not even reach the day when Bitcoin's opportunities are realized.

9. Chapter Summary

The long-term chart of Bitcoin looks like an opportunity.

But the real-time Bitcoin is a path that continuously torments people.

Connecting these nodes shows that more than specific prices, the path is more important: ETFs can open the entry, new highs can create excitement, bear markets can create doubt, capital outflows can create panic, and liquidation waves can terminate positions. The asset curve belongs to the market, while the personal path belongs to you; the gap between the two is the true source of ordinary people's investment results.

This path indicates:

Bitcoin does not lack opportunities.

The problem with Bitcoin is that it will test whether you are qualified to take on opportunities in extreme ways.

After the fact is the curve.

In the process is the torment.

And the real problem ordinary people need to solve is not to understand the curve.

It is to survive the torment.

References for this chapter

1. Reuters, Bitcoin 'halving' has taken place, CoinGecko says, 2024.

2. Reuters, Bitcoin storms above $100,000 as Trump 2.0 fuels crypto euphoria, 2024.

3. Reuters, A timeline of Bitcoin's wild ride to $100,000 and beyond, 2024.

4. Reuters, Bitcoin hits new all-time record high, 2025.

5. Reuters, Bitcoin plummets, driving $2 trillion tumble in crypto market value, 2026.

6. Reuters, Bitcoin rallies, tops $70,000 as risk assets stabilize, 2026.

7. IRS, Digital assets；

8. IRS, Frequently asked questions on digital asset transactions.

9. BlackRock, iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), 2026.

10. BTC market quote, current reference price, 2026-05-14.

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