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    3. "Backstab" or "Win-Win"? How Likely is TradeXYZ to Fly Solo from Hyperliquid?

    "Backstab" or "Win-Win"? How Likely is TradeXYZ to Fly Solo from Hyperliquid?

    By: rootdata|2026/07/31 09:22:35
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    Original |Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

    Author|Golem ( @web3_golem )

    As TradeXYZ continues to expand its business scale and has long held over 90% of the Hyperliquid HIP-3 market share, discussions in the community about whether TradeXYZ might break away from Hyperliquid and build an independent trading platform have intensified recently.

    Former Messari researcher Sam posted on platform X, stating that as an investor bullish on HYPE due to the explosion of the RWA perpetual contract market, one should ask three questions: first, if TradeXYZ leaves Hyperliquid and launches its own exchange, where will users trade; second, what impact would TradeXYZ launching its own stock/token have on HYPE's valuation; and third, how likely are these two scenarios to occur?

    This post has garnered over 470,000 views in just a few days. The rapid rise in discussion around this question essentially reflects that more market participants are beginning to realize that the value contributions in the partnership between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid are changing, with TradeXYZ gradually accumulating stronger market influence and bargaining power compared to Hyperliquid.

    In business collaborations, when one party gradually gains more resources and market voice, and the distribution of benefits between both parties becomes significantly skewed, "backstabbing" often occurs.

    A recent example comes from the AI industry. Cursor was once the largest programming AI coding tool in the market, built on Anthropic's Claude model. This was a "golden partnership" until Anthropic backstabbed by launching Cursor's direct competitor, Claude Code. By mid-2026, Claude Code's ARR officially surpassed Cursor, pushing it off the table.

    The blockchain industry has similar examples; once a single product grows large enough, it often breaks away from its original infrastructure to build its own chain ecosystem, such as Uniswap and dYdX. The hottest project in this cycle, Polymarket, has also been rumored multiple times to break away from the existing Polygon infrastructure to build independent infrastructure.

    Returning to the current question, how likely is it that TradeXYZ will leave Hyperliquid to stand on its own? If this situation does occur, what impact will it have on both Hyperliquid and TradeXYZ? Odaily Planet Daily will briefly analyze this in this article.

    Is Going Solo Inevitable?

    In the blockchain industry, there is a phenomenon where projects start and grow on a certain public chain or infrastructure, and then choose to independently build their own infrastructure (L2 or independent L1) for performance, control, underlying fee capture, or larger narrative financing. TradeXYZ has indeed grown large enough now.

    According to flowscan data, as of now, the total trading volume of Hyperliquid HIP-3 exceeds $469.62 billion, with TradeXYZ contributing over $437.4 billion, accounting for 93%; as of the time of writing, the total open interest (OI) of Hyperliquid HIP-3 has reached $3.9 billion, with TradeXYZ contributing over $3.8 billion, accounting for 99.7%.

    The total trading volume of Hyperliquid HIP-3, with TradeXYZ's share

    The remaining few trading platforms combined account for less than 10%, and HIP-3 has already formed a significant Matthew effect. From this perspective, it is not an exaggeration to say that the HIP-3 market of Hyperliquid is entirely controlled by TradeXYZ. The narrative premium brought to Hyperliquid by the development of RWA on-chain contracts is essentially the narrative premium that TradeXYZ brings to Hyperliquid.

    From both valuation and protocol revenue perspectives, TradeXYZ is no longer dispensable to Hyperliquid; it has become an important player in carrying the weight in a weak crypto market where trading volumes of Bitcoin and other crypto derivatives have shrunk.

    According to official data, HIP-3 accounts for 71.92% of Hyperliquid's total trading volume, setting a historical high. Based on TradeXYZ's dominant position in HIP-3, it means that the trading volume contributed by TradeXYZ accounts for over 70% of Hyperliquid's total trading volume; HIP-3 accounts for 36% of Hyperliquid's total OI, which also means that the OI contributed by TradeXYZ accounts for over 35% of Hyperliquid's total OI.

    The proportion of HIP-3 in Hyperliquid's total trading volume and total OI

    Thus, TradeXYZ has grown into a giant capable of influencing traditional financial markets by leveraging Hyperliquid's infrastructure. In the current partnership with Hyperliquid, its leverage and voice have begun to dominate. So, should a child grow up and stand on its own? What factors would trigger TradeXYZ to choose to build its own infrastructure?

    Setting aside financing, token issuance, and other elusive capital operation factors, from a practical business perspective, if TradeXYZ really chooses to go solo, the most likely reason would be to capture underlying fees.

    In Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market, the trading fee split between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid is fixed at 50/50, and since the standard trading fee for HIP-3 assets is twice that of the core perp market fee, Hyperliquid actually receives the same protocol fee from each HIP-3 trade as it does from the core perp market.

    According to statistics, as of the time of writing, the total fee revenue generated by TradeXYZ is close to $50 million, and based on the split ratio stipulated for HIP-3, TradeXYZ can take away at most $25 million.

    Fees generated by TradeXYZ

    It is hard to imagine a project that has created over $400 billion in trading volume, yet its total revenue has not even reached one ten-thousandth of the total trading volume. Handing over nearly half of the revenue is unbearable for most projects. Given TradeXYZ's current leverage over Hyperliquid, it could negotiate to change the revenue split to 70-30 or even higher. If a satisfactory agreement cannot be reached, TradeXYZ is likely to pursue the path of going solo.

    Why TradeXYZ Won't Leave?

    Of course, for TradeXYZ, going solo is attractive but also comes with constraints.

    The first constraint is Hyperliquid's powerful performance. TradeXYZ's perpetual contracts are deployed on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 platform, and its matching, order types, funding, liquidation, and automatic deleveraging are all managed by HyperCore. Technically, TradeXYZ only manages oracle prices, mark prices, external prices, and related components.

    If TradeXYZ chooses to go solo, they would need to build their own team to construct the underlying infrastructure. This is not a difficult task, but building an L1 with performance as strong as Hyperliquid in a short time is a challenge. Even TradeXYZ's founder Shoku himself admitted the excellence of the Hyperliquid team. In March 2024, Shoku posted on platform X, stating that he was unsure how much Hyperliquid could achieve in traditional metrics like TVL and trading volume, but he was completely confident in the quality and rigor of Hyperliquid's on-chain products and dApps, claiming there would be no rivals in the entire crypto field.

    Among these rivals is of course himself. If the infrastructure built by TradeXYZ when going solo is insufficient to compete with Hyperliquid, it will negatively impact its product experience and the narrative of price discovery ahead of traditional financial markets.

    The second constraint is that channels and distribution are also crucial. Why is Circle willing to hand over over 50% of USDC's savings yield to Coinbase? The reason is that Coinbase has indeed made significant contributions to the market distribution and promotion of USDC. According to Coinbase's Q2 latest financial report, over 30% of circulating USDC is stored on Coinbase. Mastering channels and distribution means mastering everything, and this rule applies equally to TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid.

    Essentially, Hyperliquid's front end is just an interface to access TradeXYZ's liquidity market, but it is not the only way. Users can currently also access TradeXYZ's liquidity market directly through TradeXYZ's official website, and the trading page is highly similar to Hyperliquid's. To further facilitate users, TradeXYZ's internal accounts are compatible with Hyperliquid, meaning that if a user connects the same wallet on TradeXYZ's official website and has a balance on Hyperliquid, they can use it directly.

    TradeXYZ's own trading front end

    However, even so, among TradeXYZ's over 350,000 trading users, most still access TradeXYZ's liquidity market through Hyperliquid's front end. This has become a user habit that is hard to change, and there is even a certain proportion of trading users who cannot distinguish between TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid, simply trusting Hyperliquid's brand and passively choosing to trade TradeXYZ's products.

    Therefore, Hyperliquid not only provides technical support for TradeXYZ but also serves as the main channel for distributing TradeXYZ's liquidity. The costs and time for building infrastructure can be calculated, but the value of losing channels cannot be measured.

    The third constraint is that the two project founders inherently trust each other, having a "childhood friendship." Solana's well-known KOL Ansem believes the likelihood of TradeXYZ going solo is almost zero, as he considers TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid to be the most compatible teams in the cryptocurrency field. "Neither founder has a greedy heart, and both are very smart. I believe they can choose a development path that is most beneficial for both teams."

    This statement is not without merit. Shoku was one of the earliest investors betting on Hyperliquid. As early as 2023, Shoku connected with Jeff and began contributing to the Hyperliquid ecosystem. In 2024, he developed Hyperliquid's Bitcoin cross-chain bridge, Unit, and he once revealed to friends that Hyperliquid is one of the few exciting things in the crypto world.

    All signs indicate that Shoku greatly appreciates Hyperliquid and Jeff. From a human perspective, the likelihood of a "backstab" is low.

    If TradeXYZ Goes Solo, It’s a Lose-Lose Situation

    If we are to discuss this topic thoroughly, this article should not end here. We should also discuss a highly unlikely event, which is if TradeXYZ really breaks away from Hyperliquid and goes solo, what would the outcome be? My conclusion is a lose-lose situation.

    Because under the current state, TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid are in a win-win situation. If TradeXYZ splits, the enormous uncertainty will harm both parties. After going solo, Hyperliquid could support participants in the HIP-3 market, but it would turn from a collaborator into a competitor with TradeXYZ. Hyperliquid's revenue would not be significantly affected, as over 70% of its main revenue still comes from core Perp, with the HIP-3 market accounting for only a small portion, and the biggest impact would be on its valuation.

    First, after TradeXYZ migrates, Hyperliquid's total trading volume would decrease by over 50%, and HYPE might also face a halving, as Hyperliquid would no longer be the leading on-chain RWA perpetual contract trading platform but would be redefined as a crypto derivatives trading platform that has lost its largest growth point and narrative foundation.

    TradeXYZ itself would not fare much better; it would have to cultivate its infrastructure and user habits from scratch. The performance and channels mentioned earlier would become the biggest constraints on TradeXYZ's development. Additionally, such a backstabbing behavior could likely trigger public controversy, further diminishing TradeXYZ's credibility.

    Moreover, TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid are not just competing with each other; there are other competitors in the entire RWA trading market. "When the clam and the snipe quarrel, the fisherman benefits." Hyperliquid needs time to cultivate a new HIP-3 market, and TradeXYZ's infrastructure construction also requires time. By the time they look back, the market gap may have already been filled by other competitors.

    In summary, although TradeXYZ is becoming increasingly important to Hyperliquid, going solo is clearly irrational. Even if TradeXYZ wants to improve profitability, the best way may be to gradually shift focus to its own issuance and user ownership while retaining the existing integration advantages with Hyperliquid.

    -- Price

    --

    This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.

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    Contents

    Is Going Solo Inevitable?
    Why TradeXYZ Won't Leave?
    If TradeXYZ Goes Solo, It’s a Lose-Lose Situation
    POWER

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